Sunday, August 08, 2010

Anyone seen any hurricanes lately?

Just wondering. I mean seeing as we were all told that after Katrina back in 2005, we were all going to be blown away by mega hurricanes which would increase in severity and number each year due to global warming.

It won't be long before Labor Day now. And so far? We have had one tropical depression in the gulf and zippo in the Atlantic. 


Ryan N. Maue's 2010 Global Tropical Cyclone Activity Update

Global TC Activity remains at 30-year lows at least -- The last 24-months of ACE at 1090 represents a decrease from the previous months and a return to the levels of September 2009...Since Hurricane Katrina (August 2005) and the publication of high-profile papers in Nature and Science, global tropical cyclone ACE has collapsed in half. This continues the now 4-consecutive years global crash in tropical cyclone activity. While the Atlantic on average makes up about 10% of the global, yearly hurricane activity, the other 90% deserves attention and has been significantly depressed since 2007. See Figure below.


Northern Hemisphere year-to-date ACE is nearing 50% below normal. The Western North Pacific is at 17% of normal (or the past 30-year average).


Colin and Bonnie both go into the books as a couple of the weakest tropical cyclones on record. No storms were recorded in the Eastern Pacific during July!


August and September will have to be record activity for the hurricane forecasts to pan out in the North Atlantic. See discussion at Watts Up With That?


July 31: Current ACE for July in the Northern Hemisphere is 14.2 and consists of Alex, Chanson, Bonnie, and Chanthu. No ACE was recorded in the Eastern Pacific.

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